Cap-rate trend: show the comps, then critique them

1 · Learn the move · Cognitive verifier

A developer who builds to hold does not sell, but the committee still asks where cap rates are heading, because it decides whether the building is worth more than it cost. That is where overconfidence does the most damage. A 'market cap rate' the comps cannot support tilts the whole case, and the model will produce one if asked. The cognitive verifier makes it show its work first: which comps, what dates, which carry both a price and an income figure. An implied cap is derived only where both are pasted and both describe the same thing. The trap the developer meets most is a comp whose income is a broker's projected figure rather than the in-place one: dividing projected income by a sale price produces a cap that no buyer paid. Then run a critique pass over the draft, state the direction with a confidence level, and keep the report's range on its own line.

Before stating any trend, list the comps with price, income figure and whether the income is in-place or projected as the source says. Derive an implied cap only where price and in-place income are both pasted, arithmetic tagged [verify]. Quote the report range on its own line. State direction with a confidence level. Then critique your own draft and fix it. [comps] [report range]