Write the submarket thesis with the hard bans holding

1 · Learn the move · Constraints + negative instructions

The submarket thesis is the memo that tells your committee why this is a place to build and keep for fifteen years, and it is the document most likely to be forwarded, quoted and relied on long after the bundle behind it is forgotten. That is why it lives or dies on its ban list. No figure that is not in the bundle. No forecast the forecast did not make. No cap rate the data does not carry. No sentence that says a site is entitled or served, because a thesis is not diligence and the reader will treat it as though it were. Every judgement carries a label saying it is a read. Thin evidence becomes an open item, surfaced, not filled. The bans do not make the memo timid; they make it safe to circulate, and a committee that knows every number traces is a committee that can argue about the thesis instead of the data.

Write a one-page submarket thesis for my committee from the bundle below only. Sections: THESIS / SUPPORTING FIGURES / RISKS / OPEN ITEMS. Hard bans: no figure outside the bundle, no forecast or trend beyond what the bundle prints, no cap rate, no statement that any site is entitled or served, no unlabelled judgement, no recommendation. End with a check that confirms each ban held. [bundle]